imnothammer
Moderator
https://www.baa.org/fall-2021-boston-marathon-date-selected
Yesterday's extraordinarily cautious announcement by the BAA has stirred some interesting conversations among runners about the possibility of large field races returning by the fall.
While I am all aboard the optimism train that medium field races can safely return, I don't think anyone can currently predict what is going to happen with large field races with any sort of accuracy. This will almost certainly depend upon the effective wide-scale distribution of vaccines and the estimates there are all over the map. On this part I will say that I am buoyed by Dr. Fauci's recent comments which suggest that supply will begin to outpace demand (as such that any healthy adult will be eligible to receive a dose) by late Spring.
Back to running...
Assuming that the 2021 Boston race happens, I think the most interesting discussion is what sort of qualifying time actually gets you an entry? The qualifying window for 2021 began in September 2018 and they haven't exactly clarified when it closes... 2020 obviously didn't see many races but I would wager to say those few which did take place saw a larger percentage of BQs. Anyone crazy enough to run last year was likely not just a weekend warrior but rather someone doing so for the express purpose of running a qualifying time. I think the other more telling factor will be just how large the field size actually ends up being. Boston typically runs a field of 30,000 runners. If London is any indication (they have recently trumpeted their intention to have as many as 50,000 in-person participants for 2021) this may not change, but I have a suspicion that this number will be somewhat reduced. The BAA has a really neat page on the history of the qualifying standard for the race and, with the recent change (increase in difficulty) to the qualifying standards, it has dropped back down to around BQ-2 for an entry. I have seen a lot of doomsayers claiming that you will need a BQ-10 to even stand a chance, but I think those folks underestimate how much more exponentially difficult it is to exceed your standard. I wish the BAA published data on how many people register on day one (BQ-20), day three (BQ-10), day five (BQ-5), or the remainder (BQ). I wonder which group represents the largest percentage of runners at the race?
Having said all of that, I am going to take a county fair guess at this and say that BQ-6 gets you in for 2021. Bigger qualification window and (my speculated) smaller field just seems to push the guess in this direction.
The other fun discussion has been the crowded race calendar. This now completes the 2021 WMM Calendar. You've got Berlin on 9/26, London a week later on 10/3, Chicago a week later on 10/10, Boston a day later on 10/11, Tokyo a week later on 10/17, and NYC mercifully two weeks later on 11/7. I have seen folks seriously complaining about the logistical impossibility of having to run Chicago, board a plane to get to an expo, and then run Boston the following day. My suggestion there was "maybe don't run both this year?" but I always like to see people trying for the impossible. One more rabbit hole to fall down is how this calendar will shake out for those professional runners taking a stab at the WMM series prize purse.
I am very selfishly hoping that my smaller race goes forward in June so that I can take a stab at a BQ there and enjoy Berlin and London at a cruising speed... time will tell!
Yesterday's extraordinarily cautious announcement by the BAA has stirred some interesting conversations among runners about the possibility of large field races returning by the fall.
While I am all aboard the optimism train that medium field races can safely return, I don't think anyone can currently predict what is going to happen with large field races with any sort of accuracy. This will almost certainly depend upon the effective wide-scale distribution of vaccines and the estimates there are all over the map. On this part I will say that I am buoyed by Dr. Fauci's recent comments which suggest that supply will begin to outpace demand (as such that any healthy adult will be eligible to receive a dose) by late Spring.
Back to running...
Assuming that the 2021 Boston race happens, I think the most interesting discussion is what sort of qualifying time actually gets you an entry? The qualifying window for 2021 began in September 2018 and they haven't exactly clarified when it closes... 2020 obviously didn't see many races but I would wager to say those few which did take place saw a larger percentage of BQs. Anyone crazy enough to run last year was likely not just a weekend warrior but rather someone doing so for the express purpose of running a qualifying time. I think the other more telling factor will be just how large the field size actually ends up being. Boston typically runs a field of 30,000 runners. If London is any indication (they have recently trumpeted their intention to have as many as 50,000 in-person participants for 2021) this may not change, but I have a suspicion that this number will be somewhat reduced. The BAA has a really neat page on the history of the qualifying standard for the race and, with the recent change (increase in difficulty) to the qualifying standards, it has dropped back down to around BQ-2 for an entry. I have seen a lot of doomsayers claiming that you will need a BQ-10 to even stand a chance, but I think those folks underestimate how much more exponentially difficult it is to exceed your standard. I wish the BAA published data on how many people register on day one (BQ-20), day three (BQ-10), day five (BQ-5), or the remainder (BQ). I wonder which group represents the largest percentage of runners at the race?
Having said all of that, I am going to take a county fair guess at this and say that BQ-6 gets you in for 2021. Bigger qualification window and (my speculated) smaller field just seems to push the guess in this direction.
The other fun discussion has been the crowded race calendar. This now completes the 2021 WMM Calendar. You've got Berlin on 9/26, London a week later on 10/3, Chicago a week later on 10/10, Boston a day later on 10/11, Tokyo a week later on 10/17, and NYC mercifully two weeks later on 11/7. I have seen folks seriously complaining about the logistical impossibility of having to run Chicago, board a plane to get to an expo, and then run Boston the following day. My suggestion there was "maybe don't run both this year?" but I always like to see people trying for the impossible. One more rabbit hole to fall down is how this calendar will shake out for those professional runners taking a stab at the WMM series prize purse.
I am very selfishly hoping that my smaller race goes forward in June so that I can take a stab at a BQ there and enjoy Berlin and London at a cruising speed... time will tell!